We have had a good response to the Forecasting Made Easy version that now reads Metastock data. The Master Time Factor chart type in this program has been gaining steady interest. In May we will be releasing the FME version that can read ASCII text files. One unexpected thing that has happened since the release of the Master Time Factor technique, is that traders have been asking for our forecasts for specific markets. Rather than learning the Master Time Factor forecasting method and making their own forecasts, they would like to see our forecasts. Normally we make Master Time Factor forecast as tutorials for the FME software users to read and follow the described steps to learn how to make their own forecasts. There are a huge number of markets we can choose from to make a Master Time Factor tutorial. It would help us if you can vote in the poll below are let us know your area of interest. Feel free to add items in the “Other” box including international items as we have access to just about every symbol here at Mikula Forecasting.
The picture below shows the daily corn chart using the symbol ZC. On this chart I have added the delta indicator. This indicator is based on the book Delta Phenomenon. The MarketWarrior software does not calculate the Delta count; it has a delta layout designer which allows users to work out their own count. Working out a Delta count usually takes 30 to 60 minutes.
The picture below shows my personal delta count that I developed for the corn market. This count has several high probability turning points. One of the high probability count numbers is #6. The #6 point is the next point that will occur. The #5 point just occurred on the first trading day of 2012 and the #6 point will occur in late January. We will be watching the corn market as it approaches this time period.
Here is a chart that shows the 60 minute mini gold futures contract. On this chart I have added the MarketWarrior indicator Square of Nine Chapter 2. This indicator draws support and resistance price lines based on the prices which fall on the diagonal cross and cardinal cross on the Square of Nine. On the picture below, I have added an arrow labeled A which marks a bottom on December 29, 2011 which fell right on top the support lines from the 225 degree angle from the diagonal cross on the Square of Nine. The price on this angle was 1521. This Square of Nine method has been identifying the final swing tops and bottom in gold for the last several years.
Forecasting Made Easy™ 2012 is now available. If you have a subscription to Barchart.com you can use this version of FME free. The upgrade to version 2012 contains a large number of built in symbol lists for accessing data through Barchart.com. This will allow users to get the most out of their Barchart.com subscriptions. The first 14 items listed below are the built in symbol lists or list groups. The second list shows the futures markets for which FME can create the current futures. To open the FME 2012 web site click here.
1) US stock groups
2) US stocks by A to Z groups
3) US stock in Sector groups. The US stocks are presented in one more way as sector groups. There are over 200 sector groups which group stocks by category.
4) ETFs Exchange Traded Funds. There is one listing for all the ETFs. Most of these are traded on the AMEX exchange.
5) US Cash Commodity Symbols
6) FOREX symbols. We have one symbol list for all the FOREX symbols which includes the FOREX gold and silver symbols.
7) US and Canadian Index symbols. This includes US stock sector symbols. There is a wide variety of index symbols. These symbol lists include the list of stock sector symbols. Stock sector values are indexes that often move below zero. The current FME chart does not allow negative numbers but we will be making an adjustment to this so the sector symbols can be drawn.
8) Over The Counter (OTC) and Pink Sheet stock symbols. WARNING: Many of the stock symbols for the OTC and Pink Sheet only return a few days of data. We will be testing these symbols and removing all the symbols that only return a few days of data. Currently all the symbols are included.
9) Australian Stocks in A to Z groups
10) Canadian stocks for the Canadian Stock Exchange and the two Toronto Stock Exchanges. We have three stock symbol lists for the Canadian stocks. There is one list for each exchange.
11) London Stock Exchange
12) Indian Stock Exchange
13) Canadian Funds. There are a huge number of Canadian funds. I am not sure why there are so many Canadian funds but we include them all listed in simple A to Z groups.
14) Expired US Futures symbols. Finally there are a large number of lists that include the expired US futures contracts. We do not have any lists for expired internationals futures contracts yet.
You Can Also Build Current Futures Symbols For The Following Exchanges.
1) Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
2) Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)
3) New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
4) Commodities Exchange (COMEX)
5) Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT)
6) Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX)
7) EuroNext NYSE LIFFE (NLIF)
8) EuroNext Exchange (EUIDX)
9) London International Financial Futures (LIFFE)
10) EuroNext London Futures (LCE)
11) EuroNext Paris Futures (MATIF)
12) Marche a Terme International de France (MATIF)
13) Intercontinental Exchange USA (ICEUS)
14) Intercontinental Exchange Europe (ICE)
15) CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE)
16) Mercado a Termino de Buenos Aires (MATBA)
17) Rosario Futures Exchange (ROFEX)
18) Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE)
19) BM&F Bovespa (BMF)
20) Montreal Exchange (MNTRL)Winnipeg Grain Exchange (WGE)
21) Hong Kong Financial Exchange (HKFE)
22) Zhengzhou Commodities Exchange (CZCE)
23) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)
24) Dalian Commodities Exchange (DCE)
25) Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME)
26) National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX)
27) National Stock Exchange India (NSE)
28) Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX)
29) Tokyo Commodities Exchange (TOCOM)
30) Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE)
31) Korean Futures Exchange (KFE)
32) Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (MDEX)
33) Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX)
34) Singapore Commodities Exchange (SICOM)
35) Spanish Financial Futures Exchange (MEFF)
36) Johannesburg Stock Exchange (SAFEX)
37) Thailand Stock Exchange (TFEX)
38) Thailand Futures Exchange (TAIWA)
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved
In this blog posting I am going to be discussing the Square of Nine method that is presented in Chapter 5 of the book The Definitive Guide to Forecasting Using W.D.Gann’s Square of Nine. This method will use time cycles on the Square of Nine to forecast the daily S&P500. The first step in using this method is to select the date of a major top or bottom in the past which will be used to start the Square of Nine. In this example I am using the S&P500 so I have chosen the top date from 2000, March 24. This was the major bull market top which ended the century long super-cycle. The first picture below shows a Square of Nine in MarketWarrior with the starting date set to 2000/March/24. I have circled this in red and labeled it A. The Square of Nine charts in this example are compressed because the placement of dates in the Square of Nine cells makes the square very large. The starting value on the Square of Nine is always placed outside the square and not in cell one. The starting value represents the zero point and the value in cell one is the starting value plus one.
Tip For selecting the starting date:
1) A major long-term top or bottom usually works best to start the Square of Nine. You can also use an incorporation date for a stock if you know it.
Step 2 for this method is the placement of the angle overlay on the Square of Nine. The angle overlay has a zero degree line which represents the starting point of the overlay. In this example I have selected the S&P500 bottom from 2010/August/25. On the next Square of Nine I have circled the date “10/08/25″ and the red angle line is the zero degree angle of the overlay which cross through this date.
Next lets see what this looks like on the S&P500 daily chart. The picture below is the daily chart for the S&P500 and the MarketWarrior indicator named “Sq9Chapter 5″ has been added to this chart. The vertical red line labeled B is the Square of Nine zero degree angle. This line is aligned to the date 2010/08/25 where the market bottom occurred. You should look at this price chart and the previous Square of Nine chart and understand that they show the same thing.
Tips for selecting the overlay starting point:
A major Change in Trend (CIT) or possibly a CIT that is one-back or one-foreword of a major CIT usually work the best for the overlay zero line. In the S&P500 example the major bottom occurred in July 2010 I am using the bottom that is one-foreword in August 2010.
The third step to use this method is to select the overlay angles that line up with market tops and bottoms and will be used for forecasting. The MarketWarrior indicator seen on the chart below is drawing both the calendar days count and the trading days count. When selecting the overlay angles that will be displayed you are not trying to find an angle for every market tops and bottom. You are trying to locate overlay angles that have a high probability of success finding CIT. There will usually be 1 to 4 over lay angles that have a high correlation with CIT. In this example the 4 overlay angles 0 Degrees, 60 Degrees, 225 Degrees and 300 Degrees have a high correlation with CIT in the S&P500. I have manually drawn the blue zig-zag line and placed the overlay degree values above the top or bottom points of this zig-zag line. You can see that not every turn in the S&P500 is located with this method. Also I have included the next two forecast turning point dates. These are last (0Deg) bottom and (60Deg-300Deg ) top in the zig-zag line. By mousing over the points in the MarketWarrior chart I can see they are 2012 January 16 and 2012 February 27 respectively. These are high probability turning points in the S&P500 daily chart.
Tips for selecting the overlay angles:
1) The high probability angles often have two angles from the groups (45-90-135-225-270-315) or (60-120-240-300). In this S&P500 example 60 and 300 were used.
2) There is no automatic way to select these points. It should take about 30 minutes to do this after you go through the process a few times.
It is important to work with the Square of Nine until you have an understanding of this method. But it is important to point out that it is much more difficult to see the correlation between the overlay angle dates and the market CIT points when working with the Square of Nine rather than the chart. In fact once you have an understanding of how this method works you will rarely need to use the Square of Nine but will use the chart indicator instead. On the chart below I have labeled the overlay angles that line up with my zig-zag line as C, D, E, F and G. I have added one picture below for each of these CIT that shows the CIT on the Square of Nine. In the Square of Nine pictures below I am showing the calendar days count. I do not show the pictures for the trading days count.
The Square of Nine below shows CIT point C from the chart above. The Square of Nine in this example is showing the calendar days count. This turning point date fell close to the overlay 60 degree angle in cell 4008 and was 2011/March/15. This is circled in red on the Square of Nine.
The Square of Nine below shows CIT point D from the chart above. The Square of Nine in this example is showing the calendar days count. This turning point date fell close to the overlay 0 degree angle in cell 4056 and was 2011/May/02. This is circled in red on the Square of Nine.
The Square of Nine below shows CIT point E from the chart above. The Square of Nine in this example is showing the calendar days count. This turning point date fell close to the overlay 300 degree angle in cell 4101 and was 2011/June/16. This is circled in red on the Square of Nine.
The Square of Nine below shows CIT point F from the chart above. The Square of Nine in this example is showing the calendar days count. This turning point date fell closest to the overlay 225 degree angle in cell 4136 and was 2011/July/21. This is circled in red on the Square of Nine.
The Square of Nine below shows CIT point G from the chart above. The Square of Nine in this example is showing the calendar days count. This turning point date fell closest to the overlay 60 degree angle in cell 4273 and was 2011/December/05. This is circled in red on the Square of Nine.
In this discussion I am using the weekly chart for the S&P500. This is the third discussion of the MarketWarrior indicator AT_Planet Lines Top Bottom. This indicator draws a planet line originating from a user selected starting point. The tricky issue, when using this indicator, is setting the slope value for the planet line. This is controlled with the indicator setting Multiply. Most traders are not sure how to set this value. To see the true slope of a planet line, you can set the Multiply value to 1.0. An easy way to set the slope of the planet line is to select a swing from high to low or low to high and adjust the slope until the planet line exactly touches the low and high-end of the price swing.
In the picture below, the low at A and the top at B are being used to set the slope of the Mars line. The slope has been adjusted with the Multiply value 0.84 to make the Mars line touch both ends of the price swing.
In the second picture below, I have used the exact same line and started drawing it from the low at point C. This blue line is a Mars line with a slope value is 0.84. You can see the weekly S&P500 made a bottom at point D on this line. This demonstrates that a line slope will repeat in the same market. This is a very simple and easy way to set the slope value of the planet line that any trader should be able to perform.
Here is a simple example of inter-commodity analysis from a few days ago. The chart below was made with Forecasting Made Easy 2011 and shows gold and the EURUSD. This is 10 minute chart. The candlestick bars are the mini gold futures contract YGZ1 and the line is the closing price for the Forex currency pair EURUSD.
You can see on this chart that the movements in gold and the movements of the EURUSD move in tandem with each other. The EURUSD usually change directly a few bars before the gold market. This shows the gold market is following the EURUSD. The letters A to F identify the turning point in both markets that lined up with each other.
This post uses the MarketWarrior software to discuss the Square of Nine and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In Chapter 3 of my book, The Definitive Guide to Forecasting Using W.D.Gann’s Square of Nine, I discuss one of the most common used Square of Nine methods. This method uses a starting price and then measures the distance around the Square of Nine. The expectation is that starting from a high or low price, future Change in Trend (CIT) will fall on major angle relationships such as one complete trip around the Square on Nine. The current DJIA chart provides us with a good example of this Square of Nine method.
On the chart below, I have added the Square of Nine Chapter 3 method to a daily chart of the DJIA. I have selected the recent top of 12928.5 from May 2, 2011 to be the starting point for the Square of Nine calculation. I have set the indicator to draw the price lines that represent one complete 360 degree trip around the Square of Nine. Each line on the chart below represents one full rotation on the square of nine. The bottom line at the price 10343.7 is -6 full rotations around the Square of Nine. The bottom on the DJIA occurred just above this line on Oct 4, 2011.
This shows the Square of Nine did a good job in defining the high to low price contraction in the DJIA between May 2 and Oct 4. 2011. Relationships, such as the one here in this example, can be found in almost every market on a regular basis.
I had a customer who is using MarketWarrior ask about the current position of General Electric (GE) and if it was a good time to buy this stock. I added the Super-Pitchfork to this chart to judge the present strength or weakness of the current swings. The picture below shows the daily GE stock with the Super-Pitchfork. Notice that in the current set of swings, the price returned to the Median Line as it should, but it then immediately fell hard with two full-bar gaps in a row. Also notice the current set of swings produce a downward sloping Median Line. This shows that the current position of GE is very weak and should not be bought at this time. I would expect this stock to fall until the current set of price swings produces an upward sloping Median Line and the price can return to the Median Line and hold that price. Then the stock will be showing strength.