The chart below shows the daily Adobe Inc symbol (ADBE). The indicator applied to this chart is the MarketWarrior Horoscope Index for Adobe. I set up this indicator over a year ago and have used it from time to time. Adobe is one of the good stocks for trading because it is currently trading at price levels around $30 which most traders can afford to trade.
In the sub-chart the red line is the horoscope index. Included in the sub chart is a top line which represents a high level of horoscope activity. There is also a bottom lower line which represents low horoscope activity. When the horoscope index moves above the upper line or below the lower line, there is often a change in trend.
Recently in the month of August, there were two points when the Horoscope Index moved above the upper line and below the lower line. These are labeled A and B. You can see from the arrows that both of these dates correlated with a change in trend.
One of my favorite forecasting tools is the Horoscope Index. Unfortunately this MarketWarrior indicator often does not give a signal for long periods of time.
The chart below is the daily chart for British Petroleum (BP). This Horoscope Index for BP has not given a change in trend signal for the past five months. There is now a change in trend signal being given for the middle of January 2012. This occurs when the Horoscope index moves above the upper boundary in the indicator. I have marked this with a vertical line and the letter A. After this forecast has worked itself out by early February 2012, I will post a forecast review and update.
In this post I will discuss a forecast for S&P500 mini contract for June 6, 2012 on the 20 minute chart. In this forecast I will use the short term delta indicator. This is based on the technique in the book Delta Phenomenon. The delta count used here is my personal delta count which I developed. We do not sell delta counts but working out your own delta count for any market only takes about 30 to 60 minutes of research. My delta count for the 20 minute S&P500 mini has a #1 pivot between the green and red lines. This can be seen on the first chart below which shows a previous #1 point.
The second chart shows that a #1 point occurs on June 6. I have manually added a green box marking a time window where I would expect a change in trend to occur on this 20 minute chart. I will review this forecast in a few days.
This posting will discuss the US dollar Japanese Yen Forex symbol ^USDJPY. The charts below all show a 5 minute chart for ^USDJPY. On these charts I have added the MarketWarrior indicator AT_One Minute Index. This is a planet index that does not use the price as an input. The settings for this indicator are different for each market. I have positioned the setting in this indicator to the settings that I use with the ^USDJPY. This indicator can be applied to the 1 minute chart or a 5 minute chart but the 5 minute chart often produces the best results. On the 5 minute chart, many of the Change In Trend (CIT) line up with changes in the index direction. This index will not find every CIT but it will line up with many of them.
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This chart has a large drop in the 16:00 hour (4:00 PM) which makes the rest of the price swings look very small. This makes it hard to see but the index does line up with several of the CIT in the price.
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The final chart below shows what the index looks like as it projects into the future.
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If you are using MarketWarrior, you can use the settings below to set up this indicator on your chart.
One of my favorite methods when looking at stocks is the MarketWarrior indicator AT_Horoscope Index (HI). The HI is usually calculated using the incorporation date of a stock but it can also be calculated with the first trade date or a rectified starting date.
The daily charts below are for Apple Inc. and I am using the first trade date for the starting date in the HI. The HI is a special situation trading tool. This means it identifies special situations when a change in trend may occur and does not provide a perpetual long or short indication. On the chart below the red line in the subchart is the HI. Also in the subchart there are two blue lines. One blue line is a top boundary and the second blue line is a bottom boundary. When the HI touches either the top or bottom boundary it indicates a Change in Trend (CIT) is possible. I also watch when the HI gets very close to a boundary as these situations often cause a CIT. The chart below shows the current Apple daily chart where there were five indications of a CIT given by the HI.
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The next chart shows the HI drawn out into the future through September 2011. You can see there are three more times when the HI indicates a CIT. Two are in August and one is in September.
Next week is the last week of July 2010, running from July 26 to July 30. The current active futures contract is the August 2010 contract. Next Tuesday, July 27, the August gold option expires and on Friday, July 30, the August futures contract has its first notice day. The dates just before the option expiration and the day of option expiration often see volatile trading. A Similar volatility sometimes occurs around the first notice day of the most traded futures contract. Around the first notice, day traders will close out their positions in the August 2010 contract and will open new a position in the December 2010 futures contract. This should create an exciting period of trading next week.
On the first chart below, I have added the Horoscope index using the Gold natal date. This is a 60 minute chart. I have added two blue arrow identifying where the Horoscope Index moves down to the lower boundary on the Horoscope Index. This indicates the gold market should have a Change In Trend (CIT) at these points. These points are on Monday, July 26 – one day before the gold option expiration.
Gold Next Week #1
The next chart shows the 60 minute chart covering next week from Monday, July 26 to Friday, July 30. The blue arrows on this chart identify when the Horoscope Index moves down to the lower boundary. This occurs on Monday the 26th, Wednesday the 28th and Friday the 30th and should cause a CIT. The August gold option is labeled on this chart on July 27 and the futures first notice day is labeled on July 30th.
Next Week Gold #2
The next gold chart is a 20 minute gold chart for the August contract. The last day on this chart is Friday, July 23. On this chart I have added my Short Term Delta (STD) count for gold. On Friday there was a #1 count pivot but, this occurred after the market closed for the weekend. This means the effect of the #1 pivot should occur on Monday, July 26th.
Gold Next Week #3
Below is our final chart. This is a daily gold chart. On this chart I have again added the horoscope index. The Horoscope Index moves below the lower boundary in the first week of August. At this time the traders will be switching out of the August contract to the next most active contract.
This posting shows an update to my BP forecast from May 17, 2010. This forecast uses the MarketWarrior indicator AT_Horoscope Index. The forecast shows the next time window for a Change In Trend (CIT) as the next time the Horoscope Index line moves above the upper boundary which is around July 1, 2010. I have drawn a box around this time window on the chart below. The dots on the price chart below are eclipses. BP has a history of CIT near eclipses. As we work through the time period between these two eclipse in late June and early July, the severe down move in BP stock should end at least temporarily. This stock decline has been very severe because of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and many analysts are describing BP as a possible take over target or the stock sliding to $10. When this down move ends it may not be followed by an up move. We may see BP stock form a sideways move for a period of time.
This is a second post about forecasting British Petroleum (BP). On the two charts below, I have added the MarketWarrior indicator AT_Horoscope_Index. This indicator draws the Horoscope Index (HI) value as a time series in the sub chart. The red line in the sub chart is the HI and the two thin green lines in the sub chart are the upper boundary and lower boundary. When the HI red line moves above the upper boundary it indicates the horoscope is very active. When the HI red line moves below the lower boundary it indicates the horoscope is excessively inactive. These times of very high or low activity often identify Change In Trend (CIT) points in a stock.
When setting up the Horoscope I have used the starting date of January 1, 1955 when the Anglo-Persian Oil Company was reorganized as British Petroleum. This starting date seems to work the best when forecasting cycles in the market. The points labeled A, B, C and D show where the HI was above or below one of the boundaries.
BP Horoscope Index
The second chart for BP shows the next time the HI moves above the upper boundary. This occurs in late June at point E. I would expect a CIT to occur around this date within a few days.
Here is an example for using the MarketWarrior Horoscope Index (HI). The two charts below show the HI for Safeway, symbol SWY. The HI is not intended to describe every movement in the stock. Instead we are looking for the time periods when the HI is above its upper boundary or below its lower boundary. When this occurs we would expect the energy in this market to cause a Change In Trend (CIT) or a market breakout.
On the first chart below, there are four occurrences when the HI went above or below one of the boundaries. The first three occurrences correlated with a CIT. The fourth occurrence which is labeled A correlated with a strong breakout of the price upward.
SWY Horoscope Index
On the second chart for Safeway, seen below, there are five occurrences of the HI moving above or below one of the boundaries. The first four have already occurred and correlated with a CIT. The fifth time the HI breaks one of the boundaries has not yet taken place. This will happen in early March 2010. This is a time window where we would be watching Safeway for a CIT or a price breakout.