After recently publishing a blog about Donald Bradley’s Siderograph I had a number of emails asking about the use the of the Siderograph on intraday charts. In this blog I am showing the MarketWarrior indicator named Fractal Siderograph on the 60 minute S&P500 mini contract. Donald Bradley developed his Siderograph in 1948 and did not have access to intraday data so he did not do any testing on its intraday use.
For an intraday chart you need to use either the settings Short Terms or the Middle Terms. The name Short Terms was Donald Bradley’s name for all the planet combinations that included the moon. The Middle Terms are the planet combinations that include the inner planets. We are using a 60 minute chart so I will be using the Middle Terms. The Short Terms would be appropriate on time frames such as the 5 minute chart.
The picture below is a 60 minute S&P500 mini chart with the Fractal Siderograph. The chart covers two weeks. The empty part of the chart on the right side is the week from July 9 to July 13. I have made only minor changes to the default Middle Terms settings. If you are using MarketWarrior you can create this indicator using the seven settings steps below.
(-1-) Apply the indicator.
(-2-) Open the MarketWarrior reformat settings and click the button Reset Default to make sure the settings are the built-in settings. The built-in settings are the settings used by Donald Bradley.
(-3-) Select the round radio button, Middle Terms.
(-4-) Set the Average Size to 50
(-5-) Set the Trine Polarity equal to 3
(-6-) Uncheck the pivot lines
(-7-) Set the indicator to draw in the main chart area by selecting the round radio button Draw in Main Chart.
I will post a chart at the end of this week showing how this chart looks after the close on Friday July 13. Notice the tops and bottoms in the Fractal Siderograph (FS) are not exactly the same as the S&P500 mini, but the general curve of the FS is similar to the S&P mini. This is about as close a match as you will find between the market and any indicator that is 100% market independent. Remember the FS is a planetary index and does not include the price in its calculation in any way.
The software Forecasting Made Easy has added support for ASCII text files. We have a free trial that includes sample text file data. You can download that trial installation program here. The picture below shows the new section of the help file that describes using text files. If you are using FME you can run the auto update to download the newest version of the program.
Recently soybeans made an unusually consistent upward move which lasted for four and a half months. The move ran from mid December 2011 to May 1 2012. This turned out to be a mirror reflection of the previous set of swings in the soybean market but it was not easy to spot because it was a non symmetrical mirror image.
The symmetrical mirror images are usually easy to spot and trade because the mirror image swings are approximately the same size. The first chart below shows the daily soybean chart. I have drawn a vertical line indicating the center of the mirror images. To the left I have added -1, -2, -3 and -4 marking the left side of the mirror image. To the right of the vertical line I have added +1, +2, +3 and +4. This shows the right side of the mirror image. This chart shows the right side of the mirror images is not symmetrical to the left side and therefore was difficult to spot until after it formed.
Click To Enlarge
Now that we can see this mirror image we can use it to forecast the next set of mirror image swings into the future. On the chart below, I have added -5, -6, -7 and -8. These swings on the left represent the next set of swings that will occur on the right side of the chart. I have added +5, +6, +7 and +8 to the right side of the chart. I have also added blue lines that represent the swing sizes on both time and price. If this mirror images continues to repeat we can expect the soybean market to make a series of swings between 1300 to 1420 through the end of August.
This blog posting was originally posted here as Tutorial #12 for our software Forecasting Made Easy
Let me start this tutorial by explaining the difference between the Master Time Factor and the Advanced Master Time Factor.
W.D. Gann’s forecasting method, the Master Time Factor (MTF) used historical cycles to find which cycle is repeating in todays market. W.D. Gann only used historical cycles that were the same time frame as the market he was looking to forecast. So W.D. Gann studied historical daily charts to forecast the daily chart and historical monthly charts to forecast the monthly chart and so on.
The Advanced Master Time Factor (AMTF) in our software Forecasting Made Easy allows you to mix and match time frames when doing historical research. This means you may want to forecast the daily chart and can overlay historical data that is a 5 minute chart, 60 minute chart or a monthly chart. You can mix and match historical data in any time frame combination allowing you to do research that no other software allows. Now lets look at the chart below.
The chart below is one of the teaching charts I created back in February to show what Forecasting Made Easy can do. The orange bars are the daily chart for Microsoft MSFT. This is the primary data set that we want to forecast. With Forecasting Made Easy you can overlay almost any time frame combination onto this daily chart. What I did was overlay 9 historical data sets on this chart. These were 60 minute data, covering one month each. This means that 9 historical data sets of 60 minute data covering one month were laid on top the daily chart for MSFT. I then proceeded to look for a best fit pattern match. The picture below shows the daily Microsoft chart with the two 60 minute price lines that represent the best fit.
I am always asked for advice on how to pick the best fit line. The answer is that you want to see the historical data form several turning points that line up with the data you want to forecast. In the picture below, I have added the labels A, B, C, D, E, F and G which mark tops and bottoms in the daily MSFT chart and the blue line which is the 60 minute data for the month November 2011. This blue line is the best fit line. When I make a forecast, I never use just one line. I always use two or three close-fit lines. The green line on the picture below is the 60 minute chart line for the month of October 2011. I selected this line because it started at a base at point G and then moved up following the curve of the MSFT price data and it also seemed to follow the blue best fit line. These two lines were used to teach how different time frames could be used to forecast the daily chart using the Advanced Master Time Factor.
The final chart below is an update to the two charts above. You can see that starting from February 1, 2012 to May 15, 2012 the daily chart of Microsoft followed the forecast curve at points 1, 2, 3 and 4. The blue best fit line has come to an end but the close-fit green line is still tracking well with daily Microsoft. This forecast curve shows there should be a top in daily MSFT in late May 2012 and then a bottom in mid June 2012. We will try to do another follow up in late June to see what happened. These types of accurate forecast are extremely common using this forecasting method.
I have just uploaded a new tutorial that shows how to use Forecasting Made Easy to make a W.D. Gann style forecast using the Master Time Factor. Let’s take a moment and talk about what the name Master Time Factor means. W.D. Gann used the name Master Time Factor to refer to the historical cycle that is repeating in the current markets. For example if in the current market the historical cycles from 2003 are repeating, then we could say, 2003 is the Master Time Factor for the current market. W.D. Gann understood that at any moment the market was repeating a historical cycle. The question is which historical cycle is the current market repeating? In this tutorial I am going to try and find the Master Time Factor for 2012 silver. To read this tutorial click the link below.
I have just posted a new tutorial for using the Master Time Factor on the Forecasting Made Easy web site. This tutorial uses daily data for the Forex currency pair EURUSD. In this tutorial I am going to show you how to use Forecasting Made Easy to make a W.D. Gann style forecast using the Master Time Factor. What does the name “Master Time Factor” mean? W.D. Gann used the name Master Time Factor to refer a the historical cycle that repeated in the current markets. For example if the current market is repeating the cycle from 1993, then we could say, 1993 is the Master Time Factor for the current market. W.D. Gann understood that at any moment the market was repeating a historical cycle. The question is which historical cycle is the current market repeating? In this tutorial I am going to try and find the Master Time Factor for EURUSD. To read this tutorial click the link below.
We have had a good response to the Forecasting Made Easy version that now reads Metastock data. The Master Time Factor chart type in this program has been gaining steady interest. In May we will be releasing the FME version that can read ASCII text files. One unexpected thing that has happened since the release of the Master Time Factor technique, is that traders have been asking for our forecasts for specific markets. Rather than learning the Master Time Factor forecasting method and making their own forecasts, they would like to see our forecasts. Normally we make Master Time Factor forecast as tutorials for the FME software users to read and follow the described steps to learn how to make their own forecasts. There are a huge number of markets we can choose from to make a Master Time Factor tutorial. It would help us if you can vote in the poll below are let us know your area of interest. Feel free to add items in the “Other” box including international items as we have access to just about every symbol here at Mikula Forecasting.
NEW TUTORIAL: If you own Forecasting Made Easy or you are using the free trial, open the help file and look at the section titled “Chart – Master Time Factor”. In this section of the help file, you will see a new tutorial named, “Tutorial 3: MTF S&P 500 Mini March 23″. This tutorial discusses forecasting the S&P 500 mini contract on the 30 minute time frame. The Master Time factor can be used to forecast the next day’s price action on intraday charts so we will be adding new tutorials to the help file discussing forecasting intraday charts especial the S&P 500 mini.
Here is a chart that shows the 60 minute mini gold futures contract. On this chart I have added the MarketWarrior indicator Square of Nine Chapter 2. This indicator draws support and resistance price lines based on the prices which fall on the diagonal cross and cardinal cross on the Square of Nine. On the picture below, I have added an arrow labeled A which marks a bottom on December 29, 2011 which fell right on top the support lines from the 225 degree angle from the diagonal cross on the Square of Nine. The price on this angle was 1521. This Square of Nine method has been identifying the final swing tops and bottom in gold for the last several years.
This post will discuss a forecast for the 60 minute silver chart for January 6, 2012. The picture below shows the MarketWarrior indicator named Swing Projector. This indicator projects into the future a series of swing tops and bottoms. The small circle with a t or a b mark small swing top and bottom projections. The triangles with a capital T and B represent the larger swing turning point projections. The yellow lines are the projected price levels. The picture below shows the mini silver futures contract symbol YIH2. I have manually added a red zig-zag arrow that shows the expected path of the silver price for June 6. The silver market should make a top early in the day and then should make a zig-zag move down to the point marked by the large triangle with a B inside. I expect the bottom to be made on one of the price levels identified by the yellow lines. I would like to see these tops and bottoms lines up with overbought and oversold momentum. We will review this forecast in a few days.