Tag Archives: Delta

Sep 10 2010

Repeating Intraday V Pattern in Gold

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

In several previous posts I talked about patterns that repeat on intraday charts several days in a row. This past week in the gold market we saw a V pattern repeat three days in a row:  Sept. 8, Sept. 9 and Sept. 10. All three charts below show a 5 minute chart for the mini gold symbol YG.

The first chart is for the date Sept. 8, 2010. I have highlighted the V pattern with two red lines. Notice the pattern is not only the shape but also the time of the pattern. On this chart the first top of the V pattern and the bottom of the V, occurred in the 7AM hour. The second top in the V pattern occurred in the 8AM hour.

20100910_post532a.png

Gold V Pattern #1

The second chart is for the date Sept. 9, 2010. I have again highlighted the V pattern with two red lines. On this chart we see the first time this V pattern repeats. The time of each point in the V is similar to the previous day.  On this chart the first top of the V pattern and the bottom of the V, occurred in the 7AM hour. The second top in the V pattern occurred in the 8AM hour. This shows the pattern gave us a very good trading opportunity in gold because it was so similar to the previous day’s pattern.

20100910_post532b.png

Gold V Pattern #2

The third chart is for the date Sept. 10, 2010. I have again highlighted the V pattern with two red lines. Here we see the second time this V pattern repeats. The time of each point in the V is similar to the previous two days.  On this chart the first top of the V pattern occurs in the 6AM hour.  The bottom of the V, occurred in the 7AM hour. Finally the second top in the V pattern occurred in the 8AM hour. This pattern gave us a good trading opportunity because the same pattern occurs in the previous two days.  When day trading it is very common to see the same pattern occur 2 and 3 days in a row.

20100910_post532c.png

Gold V Pattern #3

End

Sep 2 2010

Mini S&P500 Turning Points

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

If you are trading the Mini S&P500 (ES) hopefully you saw the Delta #1 pivot point that occurred on Thursday Sep/9/2010.  Delta is a cycle technique that was described in the book Delta Phenomenon. The MarketWarrior software has a few indicators for traders who want to develop their own Delta count. We developed our own count for the mini S&P500 20 minute chart which is shown below. The most important point in the count is the #1 pivot. This occurred the past Thursday.  You can see on this chart after the #1 cycle point, the market was down the rest of the day.

20100902_post528.png

Mini S&P500

End

Aug 31 2010

British Pound Forecast

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The chart below shows the British Pound future contract symbol B6. This is a daily chart. The MarketWarrior program has several indicators that allow you to develop your own Delta counts for different markets. The Delta method is a cycle method that was described in detail in the book the Delta Phenomenon. The MarketWarrior indicators can be used to develop your own custom Delta counts in different markets. This chart illustrates the Delta count that I developed for the daily British Pound.  The largest moves occur around the end of one delta count and the start of a new delta count. The picture below shows that the last Delta count #7 and the first Delta count #1 occur in late September. Watch these time periods for a British Pound change in trend.

20100831_post527.png

British Pound Forecast

End

Aug 1 2010

Gold Analysis

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Below are three charts showing some current gold market analysis. The first chart below shows the very common occurrence of the gold option expiration causing a large move and then the market retracing to that move in a few days. On July 27, 2010, we saw a large decline on the option expiration day. The 28th was a small range day and then the 29th and 30th were up days that retraced the entire decline from the option expiration. Some gold market analysis claim this is caused by market manipulation from the option sellers but I do not know if that is true or not. But this does happen often enough that you should be aware if it.

20100801_post512a.png

Option Expiration

The second chart below shows a daily chart for gold. On this chart I have added a custom Delta count for gold that I worked out. My daily Delta shows the last count value #11 occurring as a bottom in late July 2010. The next point is the #1 point in mid August. This chart’s sub graph shows the MarketWarrior indicator AT_Horoscope Index for gold. This index moves below the lower boundary in the first week of August. This indicates a turning point in the first week of August. One scenario might be that the Delta #11 and the horoscope index are identifying the same bottom and gold will now rally into mid August. It can also be that the Delta #11 is a bottom and some time late next week gold will make a top and then decline into a Delta #1 inversion bottom. No matter which scenario occurs most of next week should be up for gold.

20100801_post512b.png

Gold Forecast

Below is the final gold chart. This is a monthly nearby continuous chart for gold futures. There is a very bearish pattern forming on this chart. I have drawn lines between this chart’s higher highs as the bull market moves higher. Look at the line between tops A and B. The top B was 41.243% above point A. Now look at the tops B and C. The top C was only 18.619% above B. Finally look at the tops C and D. The top D was only 3.131% above C. The pattern is that the higher tops are moving higher by a smaller and smaller percent. This is very bearish. The problem using monthly charts is the patterns take so much time to form, they often have little value for traders who are trading the daily or intraday charts. This pattern often leads to an end of a bull market and a transition into a sideways market or a bear market. To breakout of this bearish pattern, the gold market needs to move above point D by more than 3.131% and the more the better.

20100801_post512c.png

Monthly Gold

End

Jul 17 2010

Follow Up for Gold Forecast

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Here is a follow-up on our postings for gold on July 14, 2010 and July 15, 2010. The first chart below shows the 20 minute gold chart where I forecast a Change In Trend (CIT) around the pivot #1 on the chart. You should look back at the July 14 posting to read this forecast. What I wrote in that forecast was that my Delta #1 point occurred late in the day and the effect may occur the following day July 15. This is exactly what happened. After my Delta #1 point the Gold 20 minute chart had a 20 dollar per ounce decline.

20100717_post503a.png

20 min chart forecast follow-up

In my blog post on July 15, 2010 I talked about the break down of the stop and reverse method due to a small high-low range on the 60 minute chart. I said in that post that I expected the market to either breakout upward or downward. As I expected the gold market 60 minute chart had a nice breakout. On July 16, 2010 the breakout to the down side occurred. The stop and reverse method should return to working normally until the next extremely small price range.

20100717_post503b.png

60 min chart forecast follow up

End

Jul 16 2010

Follow Up for July 15, 2010 mini S&P500 Forecast

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

This is a follow-up for the forecast made in the July 13, 2010 post. In the July 13 posting I made a forecast for the S&P500 mini contract (ES) using the 20 minute chart. Please go back to that posting and read the forecast if you have not done so yet. I used my Short Term Delta (STD) count that I developed for the mini S&P500 to forecast an important pivot point around 11:00AM Central Time 12 noon Eastern Time on July 15, 2010. The chart below is the same chart from the July 13 post but now the data for July 15 has been filled in. You can see the Forecast Delta #1 point did in fact identify a significant bottom in the 20 minute mini S&P500 chart. Hopefully you read the July 13 forecast and were watching in real-time.

20100716_post502.png

S&P500 Forecast Follow Up

End

Jul 14 2010

Forecasting mini-Gold For July 15 on the 20 Minute Chart

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Here is a forecast for the mini Gold (YG).  On this chart I have added my Short Term Delta (STD). This is a 20 minute chart. My STD counts that I formulate are not permanent; they are always under development. My current STD count for gold shows a #1 count on July 15, 2010. This is shown on the chart below. Near the #1 point there is usually a price swing that is large enough for a swing trade. This price move may be up or down into the #1 point, or the price move may start at the #1 point and move up or down away from the #1 point. This #1 point occurs at 5:30PM Central Time. This is 6:30PM Eastern Time. Because this #1 points occurs after the main trading session closes, the effect of this #1 point may be seen on July 16, 2010. I will keep track and let you know what happens.

20100714_post500.png

mini Gold Forecast

End

Jul 13 2010

Forecasting mini S&P500 for July 15 on the 20 Minute Chart

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The picture below shows the 20 minute chart for the S&P500 mini contract (ES). This chart shows the Delta count that I devised for the Short Term Delta (STD) and the mini S&P500. All the STD counts that I constructed are considered by me to be under development because I do not have a permanent STD count in any market. I will modify a STD count every few weeks as it is called for. Having said that, my current STD count for the mini S&P500 has a #1 pivot on July 15, 2010 at 11:00AM Central Time. This is 12:00 Noon Eastern Time. The #1 point often sees the start or end of a move that is large enough to swing trade. We will see what happens on July 15, 2010.

20100713_post499.png

mini SnP500 Forecast

End

Jul 12 2010

Forecasting Wheat

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

I would like to give all our blog readers a heads up about a coming Delta turning point. The Delta count that I developed for the Wheat market has a #1 pivot coming in mid July. The chart below shows the daily wheat (ZW) and my Delta count for wheat. The end of the count at #8 and the start of the next count at #1 should produce a large price swing.

20100712_post498.png

Wheat Forecast

End

Jul 6 2010

Safeway Daily Forecast

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

I like to post a reminder when a market is reaching the end of one of my Delta cycles. The picture below shows a daily chart for Safeway (SWY). On this chart I have added the Delta count that I developed for this stock. This stock will reach my Delta #1 cycle point in mid July. I would expect the decline in Safeway that has been going on for three months to come to an end some time around this #1 point.  If this market is weak, the down cycle will end and the market will move sideways. If the market has normal strength it should form an up swing after the #1 pivot count. Two of the best pivot numbers to watch for change in trend in Safeway are the #1 and #3 pivots. The next #3 pivot occurs in the second half of August 2010.

20100706_post495.png

Safeway (SWY) Forecast

End