Tag Archives: Delta

Mar 23 2012

New Tutorial for the Master Time Factor and the S&P 500 mini

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2012 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

NEW TUTORIAL: If you own Forecasting Made Easy or you are using the free trial, open the help file and look at the section titled “Chart – Master Time Factor”. In this section of the help file, you will see a new tutorial named, “Tutorial 3: MTF S&P 500 Mini March 23″.  This tutorial discusses forecasting the S&P 500 mini contract on the 30 minute time frame. The Master Time factor can be used to forecast the next day’s price action on intraday charts so we will be adding new tutorials to the help file discussing forecasting intraday charts especial the S&P 500 mini.

New Tutorial

New Tutorial

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Jan 9 2012

Forecasting Corn

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2012 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The picture below shows the daily corn chart using the symbol ZC. On this chart I have added the delta indicator. This indicator is based on the book Delta Phenomenon. The MarketWarrior software does not calculate the Delta count; it has a delta layout designer which allows users to work out their own count. Working out a Delta count usually takes 30 to 60 minutes.

The picture below shows my personal delta count that I developed for the corn market. This count has several high probability turning points. One of the high probability count numbers is #6. The #6 point is the next point that will occur. The #5 point just occurred on the first trading day of 2012 and the #6 point will occur in late January. We will be watching the corn market as it approaches this time period.

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Jan 7 2012

S&P500 mini Forecast Follow up

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2012 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Here is the follow-up blog for the forecast of the 20 minute S&P500 mini for January 6, 2012.

In the previous post made on January 5, 2012,  I forecast a turning point at the delta #1 point seen on the chart below during the day January 6, 2012. The chart below shows the short-term delta count that I have developed for the S&P500 mini. The MarketWarrior software does not calculate Delta counts; they must be calculated by hand. This usually takes 30 to 60 minutes of research. The #1 delta count usually aligns with the largest turning point of the day. On the chart below, the #1 points has aligned with a market bottom. The delta #1 count fell from a top down into the #1 point. This fall into the Delta #1 point was the largest move of the day for January 6, 2012. If you trade the S&P500 mini, you should watch the next #1 delta point when it occurs.

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Jan 6 2012

Forecasting S&P500 mini 20 minute chart

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2012 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

In this post I will discuss a forecast for S&P500 mini contract for June 6, 2012 on the 20 minute chart. In this forecast I will use the short term delta indicator. This is based on the technique in the book Delta Phenomenon. The delta count used here is my personal delta count which I developed. We do not sell delta counts but working out your own delta count for any market only takes about 30 to 60 minutes of research. My delta count for the 20 minute S&P500 mini has a #1 pivot between the green and red lines. This can be seen on the first chart below which shows a previous #1 point.

The second chart shows that a #1 point occurs on June 6. I have manually added a green box marking a time window where I would expect a change in trend to occur on this 20 minute chart. I will review this forecast in a few days.

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Dec 23 2011

Gold Forecast Based on Platinum

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

I wanted to post this chart a week ago but I could not find the time. I believe this chart still has value for traders watching the gold market. The big question for gold traders going into 2012 is whether gold is going to continue the bull market into 2012. There is a simple way to determine if gold prices are going to be heading down or up. You simply need to plot gold on the same chart as platinum. The chart below was made with Forecasting made Easy 2012 and shows the weekly gold and platinum using the same price scale. The normal relationship for these two metals is that platinum is higher priced than gold. Notice on this chart the platinum red bars are below the gold green and blue bars. As long as the platinum price is below the gold price the bull market in gold will not continue. So for now the gold forecast is for prices to move sideways to down and this will be the forecast as long as platinum prices are below the gold price.

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Sep 20 2011

How To Use Multi-Time Frame Bollinger Bands

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

In this tutorial I will discuss using two different time frames of Bollinger bands. The picture below shows a 5 minute candlestick chart for the mini gold contract (YG). In this picture the red dashed line is a Bollinger Bands calculated on the 5 minute bars. The other lines on the chat, colored orange and purple are Bollinger bands calculated on the 60 minute time frame. The 5 minute Bollinger Band is set to 3 standard deviations. The 60 minute Bollinger Bands are set at 1, 2, 3 and 4 standard deviations. The chart is a 5 minute candlestick chart with a 5 minute and 60 minute Bollinger Bands. When I use two different time frames of Bollinger Bands, I am looking for the market to make a top against one of the 60 minute Bollinger Bands and against the 5 minute Bollinger Band at the same time. I look for the opposite when looking for a swing bottom.

On the picture at point A, the candlestick bar moved up to both the 5 minute and 60 minute Bollinger band. Then the market immediately turned and formed a top. Next at point B, the market moved down and touched the 5 minute and 60 minute Bollinger band.  At point B the market then turned up and made a bottom. I have found that it is very common to see market turning points when the price bars touch the Bollinger Bands from two different time frames.

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Nov 20 2010

Forecast For Daily Corn

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The picture below is a daily chart for daily corn futures, symbol ZC. On this chart I have added the MarketWarrior indicator “Delta 4 Mont (Intermediate Term)”. The Delta count shown on this chart is my personal custom Delta count that I developed for the corn market. Using MarketWarrior you can develop a custom count for any market you are interested in. The most important count position in any delta count is the #1 pivot. In my Delta count the #1 pivot is occurring now. The last date on this chart is Nov 19, 2010. There should be a turning point in corn during the time window that I have drawn on this chart.

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Corn Forecast

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Nov 9 2010

Long Term Gold Chart

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Here is one of the long-term monthly charts for gold that I watch. The current uptrend in gold made its first top in 2006, the second top in 2008, the third top in 2009 and we are currently looking for the fourth top. This creates 3 upward swings after the 2006 top. The first one was +41.243% the second one was +18.619% and the current move is +16.137%. Notice that each upward swing has been smaller than the previous. The best case scenario for gold is to have the current upswing be larger than the previous swing of +18.619%. If the current upswing moves up +18.619% that will take the price up to $1457.076. I want to see gold move up above this price level. If the price moves above this price, it will be very positive because the price swings will be getting larger rather than getting smaller.

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Long Term Gold

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Nov 8 2010

Long Term Elliott Wave Count

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The US stock market is in a critical position with regard to the long-term wave count I have been following. The chart below shows the monthly chart for the DJIA30. The top (5) that occurred in 2000 just below the price 12000 was the long-term super cycle top. After this top the market has formed an irregular A-B-C pattern with the top at [B] in 2007 being higher than the (5). An irregular top occurs when the market does not decline during the A-B-C correction waves. The top [B] would normally be at or below the year 2000 top (5) but the fact that it went higher is also OK. This market is now forming the top of wave (1) in a new 1-2-3-4-5 wave sequence. This top at (1)should ideally be below the year 2000 top (5) at 12000. Then the following bottom at (2) should be at a price that represents a 50% or 61.8% correction of wave (1). I would like to see this market make a top below 12000 before the end of the year.

The reason I said at the start of this article that the US stock market is in a critical position with regard to this wave count is that the US stock market has an 80% historical probability of moving up in the 4th quarter between September and December during the Christmas season. If this historical pattern repeats this year, the wave (1) top will certainly be above the 12000 level and above the previous wave (5) top. This will mean the wave pattern will need to be reevaluated.

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Long Term Waves

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Nov 2 2010

Forecast For The S&P500 mini

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The two charts below show the mini S&P500, symbol ES. These are 20 minute charts. On these charts I have added the MarketWarrior indicator named “Delta 4 Day (Short Term)”. The Delta count on this chart is my custom delta count for the S&P500.  My custom delta counts for the short-term are modified several times a year as the market cycles change. This is the current short-term count for the S&P500 mini which has not been change for about 6 months. Using MarketWarrior you can develop your own custom Delta counts.

The pivot number 8 has been a high probability count recently in this count. On the second chart below I am showing the next #8 pivot position. This is Nov 23, 2010 at 10AM. I will be watching the S&P500 mini for a change in trend around this date and time.

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Mini S&P500

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Mini S&P500 Forecast

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