Monthly Archives: December 2011

Dec 23 2011

Forecasting Made Easy 2012 is now available

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Forecasting Made Easy™ 2012 is now available. If you have a subscription to Barchart.com you can use this version of FME free. The upgrade to version 2012 contains a large number of built in symbol lists for accessing data through Barchart.com. This will allow users to get the most out of their Barchart.com subscriptions. The first 14 items listed below are the built in symbol lists or list groups. The second list shows the futures markets for which FME can create the current futures. To open the FME 2012 web site click here.

1) US stock groups
2) US stocks by A to Z groups
3) US stock in Sector groups. The US stocks are presented in one more way as sector groups. There are over 200 sector groups which group stocks by category.
4) ETFs Exchange Traded Funds. There is one listing for all the ETFs. Most of these are traded on the AMEX exchange.
5) US Cash Commodity Symbols
6) FOREX symbols. We have one symbol list for all the FOREX symbols which includes the FOREX gold and silver symbols.
7) US and Canadian Index symbols. This includes US stock sector symbols. There is a wide variety of index symbols. These symbol lists include the list of stock sector symbols. Stock sector values are indexes that often move below zero. The current FME chart does not allow negative numbers but we will be making an adjustment to this so the sector symbols can be drawn.
8) Over The Counter (OTC) and Pink Sheet stock symbols.  WARNING: Many of the stock symbols for the OTC and Pink Sheet only return a few days of data. We will be testing these symbols and removing all the symbols that only return a few days of data. Currently all the symbols are included.
9) Australian Stocks in A to Z groups
10) Canadian stocks for the Canadian Stock Exchange and the two Toronto Stock Exchanges. We have three stock symbol lists for the Canadian stocks. There is one list for each exchange.
11) London Stock Exchange
12) Indian Stock Exchange
13) Canadian Funds. There are a huge number of Canadian funds. I am not sure why there are so many Canadian funds but we include them all listed in simple A to Z groups.
14) Expired US Futures symbols. Finally there are a large number of lists that include the expired US futures contracts. We do not have any lists for expired  internationals futures contracts yet.

You Can Also Build Current Futures Symbols For The Following Exchanges.

1) Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
2) Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)
3) New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
4) Commodities Exchange (COMEX)
5) Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT)
6) Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX)
7) EuroNext NYSE LIFFE (NLIF)
8) EuroNext Exchange (EUIDX)
9) London International Financial Futures (LIFFE)
10) EuroNext London Futures (LCE)
11) EuroNext Paris Futures (MATIF)
12) Marche a Terme International de France (MATIF)
13) Intercontinental Exchange USA (ICEUS)
14) Intercontinental Exchange Europe (ICE)
15) CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE)
ARGENTINA
16) Mercado a Termino de Buenos Aires (MATBA)
17) Rosario Futures Exchange (ROFEX)
AUSTRALIA
18) Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE)
BRAZIL
19) BM&F Bovespa (BMF)
CANADA
20) Montreal Exchange (MNTRL)Winnipeg Grain Exchange (WGE)
CHINA
21) Hong Kong Financial Exchange (HKFE)
22) Zhengzhou Commodities Exchange (CZCE)
23) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)
24) Dalian Commodities Exchange (DCE)
DUBAI
25) Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME)
INDIA
26) National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX)
27) National Stock Exchange India (NSE)
28) Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX)
JAPAN
29) Tokyo Commodities Exchange (TOCOM)
30) Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE)
KOREA
31) Korean Futures Exchange (KFE)
MALAYSIA
32) Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (MDEX)
SINGAPORE
33) Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX)
34) Singapore Commodities Exchange (SICOM)
SPAIN
35) Spanish Financial Futures Exchange (MEFF)
SOUTH AFRICA
36) Johannesburg Stock Exchange (SAFEX)
THAILAND
37) Thailand Stock Exchange (TFEX)
38) Thailand Futures Exchange (TAIWA)

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Dec 23 2011

Titanium Metals TIE Forecast Using Mirror Cycle

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

I previously posted a forecast of the stock Titanium Metals (TIE) using the moving average indicator’s mirror cycle forecast. Here in this post I will show the current forecast for TIE using the same method. The chart below is the 720 minute TIE chart made using Forecasting Made Easy 2012. The 720 minute chart is basically 2 bars per day. All the indicators in Forecasting Made Easy can be used to forecast market cycles by setting a historical top or bottom as the starting point for the indicator to display a forecast into the future. In the picture below I have set the moving average forecast starting point on the TIE top that occurred in the last week on October 2011. After this date the moving average is drawing a mirror cycle forecast. This forecast roughly lined up with the swing tops and bottoms at points A, B, C and D. After point D the forecast cycle makes a swing down into the first week of 2012. The forecast for TIE is for the stock to decline into the end of the year and through the first week of 2012.

The subchart I have a multi time frame momentum indicator. The green line is the 720 minute momentum indicator. The magenta line that is slightly stair stepped is the weekly momentum. Now notice the weekly momentum is in the middle of the momentum range which is 0 to 100. And notice the 720 minute momentum is at the top of the range very close to 100.  So the short time frame momentum is over bought and the long-term momentum in neutral. This indicates the market is ready to make a top.

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Dec 23 2011

Gold Forecast Based on Platinum

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

I wanted to post this chart a week ago but I could not find the time. I believe this chart still has value for traders watching the gold market. The big question for gold traders going into 2012 is whether gold is going to continue the bull market into 2012. There is a simple way to determine if gold prices are going to be heading down or up. You simply need to plot gold on the same chart as platinum. The chart below was made with Forecasting made Easy 2012 and shows the weekly gold and platinum using the same price scale. The normal relationship for these two metals is that platinum is higher priced than gold. Notice on this chart the platinum red bars are below the gold green and blue bars. As long as the platinum price is below the gold price the bull market in gold will not continue. So for now the gold forecast is for prices to move sideways to down and this will be the forecast as long as platinum prices are below the gold price.

20111221_post593.png

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End

Dec 16 2011

Forecasting the S&P500 with the MarketWarrior Dewey Cycle Indicator

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

I would like to discuss one of the most over looked forecasting indicators in MarketWarrior. This is the Dewey Cycle indicator. This is a simple cycle indicator based on the work of Edward Dewey. This indicator can set up to 6 cycles and and create a composite cycle if desired. In the first picture, I have added the Dewey cycle indicator to the daily S&P500. I have set the cycle length based on the low to low distance from the market at point A and the bottom at point B. This low to low distance defines the short term cycle in red that I will use.

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The next picture shows the second cycle that I am using with the S&P500 daily chart. This is a medium length cycle and is in green. This cycle is set up based on the low to high length between the bottom at point A and the top at point B.

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The third chart below shows the cycles after the set up dates. I have manually added the arrows where these simple cycles lined up with the Change In Trend (CIT) points on the S&P500 daily chart. You can see these simple cycles did very well to line up with market CIT points.

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The next chart shows the future space on the S&P500 chart. This is the area that shows the cycles out to June 2012. This indicator is very easy to use. You only need to watch the market approach each cycle top and bottom and watch for a market CIT point. If the market makes a CIT near the cycle turning point, then you can make a trade and try to capture some of the ensuing market move.

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The final two charts below show how to use the composite feature in the MarketWarrior Dewey cycle indicator. On the next chart I have added a 3rd cycle. This is an extra long cycle and is drawn as a blue line. Now we have three cycles. A short red cycle, a long green cycle and a extra long blue cycle.

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On the final chart below I have selected the composite option in the indicator and now the indicator is drawing as a composite cycle line. This composite cycle is shown out through June 2012 for the S&P500 daily chart.

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End

Dec 15 2011

eBook Upgrade Underway

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

.

Our current set of eBooks were created using the eBookPro program. The eBookPro software is now being discontinued. This decision is beyond our control. So we are currently in the process of reformatting and upgrading our eBooks to a new format. The new ebooks will initially be available for the Barnes & Noble NOOK. MarketWarrior owners will also have the options to get the eBooks as a standalone .exe for Windows. Later the eBooks will be made available through Amazon.com for the Kindle.

Thank You for your patience.

Square of Nine Book tn_0-9650518-3-8.jpg tn_v1v2cover.jpg tn_v1v2cover.jpg 

newcoverart199.jpg newcoverart399.jpg newcoverart31.jpg

 

end.

Dec 14 2011

Forecasting The S&P500 With The Square of Nine

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
http://www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2011 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

In this blog posting I am going to be discussing the Square of Nine method that is presented in Chapter 5  of the book The Definitive Guide to Forecasting Using W.D.Gann’s Square of  Nine. This method will use time cycles on the Square of Nine to forecast the  daily S&P500. The first step in using this method is to select the date of a major top or bottom in the past which will be used to start the Square of Nine. In this example I am using the S&P500 so I have chosen the top date from 2000, March 24. This was the major bull market top which ended the century long super-cycle. The first picture below shows a Square of Nine in MarketWarrior with the starting date set to 2000/March/24. I have circled this in red and labeled it A. The Square of Nine charts in this example are compressed because the placement of dates in the Square of Nine cells makes the square very large. The starting value on the Square of Nine is always placed outside the square and not in cell one. The starting value represents the zero point and the value in cell one is the starting value plus one.

Tip For selecting the starting date:
1) A major long-term top or bottom usually works best to start the Square of Nine. You can also use an incorporation date for a stock if you know it.

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Step 2 for this method is the placement of the angle overlay on the Square of Nine. The angle overlay has a zero degree line which represents the starting point of the overlay. In this example I have selected the S&P500 bottom from 2010/August/25. On the next Square of Nine I have circled the date “10/08/25″ and the red angle line is the zero degree angle of the overlay which cross through this date.

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Next lets see what this looks like on the S&P500 daily chart. The picture below is the daily chart for the S&P500 and the MarketWarrior indicator named “Sq9Chapter 5″ has been added to this chart. The vertical red line labeled B is the Square of Nine zero degree angle. This line is aligned to the date 2010/08/25 where the market bottom occurred. You should look at this price chart and the previous Square of Nine chart and understand that they show the same thing.

Tips for selecting the overlay starting point:
A major Change in Trend (CIT) or possibly a CIT that is one-back or one-foreword of a major CIT usually work the best for the overlay zero line. In the S&P500 example the major bottom occurred in July 2010 I am using the bottom that is one-foreword in August 2010.

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The third step to use this method is to select the overlay angles that line up with market tops and bottoms and will be used for forecasting. The MarketWarrior indicator seen on the chart below is drawing both the calendar days count and the trading days count. When selecting the overlay angles that will be displayed you are not trying to find an angle for every market tops and bottom. You are trying to locate overlay angles that have a high probability of success finding CIT. There will usually be 1 to 4 over lay angles that have a high correlation with CIT. In this example the 4 overlay angles 0 Degrees, 60 Degrees, 225 Degrees and 300 Degrees have a high correlation with CIT in the S&P500. I have manually drawn the blue zig-zag line and placed the overlay degree values above the top or bottom points of this zig-zag line. You can see that not every turn in the S&P500 is located with this method. Also I have included the next two forecast turning point dates. These are last (0Deg) bottom and (60Deg-300Deg ) top in the zig-zag line. By mousing over the points in the MarketWarrior chart I can see they are 2012 January 16 and 2012 February 27 respectively. These are high probability turning points in the S&P500 daily chart.

Tips for selecting the overlay angles:
1) The high probability angles often have two angles from the groups (45-90-135-225-270-315) or (60-120-240-300). In this S&P500 example 60 and 300 were used.
2) There is no automatic way to select these points. It should take about 30 minutes to do this after you go through the process a few times.

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It is important to work with the Square of Nine until you have an understanding of this method. But it is important to point out that it is much more difficult to see the correlation between the overlay angle dates and the market CIT points when working with the Square of Nine rather than the chart. In fact once you have an understanding of how this method works you will rarely need to use the Square of Nine but will use the chart indicator instead. On the chart below I have labeled the overlay angles that line up with my zig-zag line as C, D, E, F and G. I have added one picture below for each of these CIT that shows the CIT on the Square of Nine. In the Square of Nine pictures below I am showing the calendar days count. I do not show the pictures for the trading days count.

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The Square of Nine below shows CIT point C from the chart above. The Square of Nine in this example is showing the calendar days count. This turning point date fell close to the overlay 60 degree angle in cell 4008 and was 2011/March/15. This is circled in red on the Square of Nine.

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The Square of Nine below shows CIT point D from the chart above. The Square of Nine in this example is showing the calendar days count. This turning point date fell close to the overlay 0 degree angle in cell 4056 and was 2011/May/02. This is circled in red on the Square of Nine.

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The Square of Nine below shows CIT point E from the chart above. The Square of Nine in this example is showing the calendar days count. This turning point date fell close to the overlay 300 degree angle in cell 4101 and was 2011/June/16. This is circled in red on the Square of Nine.

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The Square of Nine below shows CIT point F from the chart above. The Square of Nine in this example is showing the calendar days count. This turning point date fell closest to the overlay 225 degree angle in cell 4136 and was 2011/July/21. This is circled in red on the Square of Nine.

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The Square of Nine below shows CIT point G from the chart above. The Square of Nine in this example is showing the calendar days count. This turning point date fell closest to the overlay 60 degree angle in cell 4273 and was 2011/December/05. This is circled in red on the Square of Nine.

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