Monthly Archives: November 2010

Nov 20 2010

Forecast For Daily Corn

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The picture below is a daily chart for daily corn futures, symbol ZC. On this chart I have added the MarketWarrior indicator “Delta 4 Mont (Intermediate Term)”. The Delta count shown on this chart is my personal custom Delta count that I developed for the corn market. Using MarketWarrior you can develop a custom count for any market you are interested in. The most important count position in any delta count is the #1 pivot. In my Delta count the #1 pivot is occurring now. The last date on this chart is Nov 19, 2010. There should be a turning point in corn during the time window that I have drawn on this chart.

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Corn Forecast

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Nov 19 2010

Gann Angles and the 10 min Mini Dow

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Here is one of my favorite techniques for using the Gann price X time angles on an intraday chart. This chart shows the mini Dow futures contract symbol YM for the date Nov 19, 2010. This is a 10 minute chart. I have added the Gann angles to this chart starting from the opening price on the day. This is the first opening price at midnight on Nov 19. For these Gann angles I am using a 2 point per bar price step. On most days the mini Dow will form several turning points on these Gann angles. You will not see every turning point form on these angles but this Gann angle technique will find several good trades per day. On the chart below I have labeled two tops on these angles at T1 ad T2. I have labeled two bottoms at B1 and B2. These turning points provided several good trades on Nov 19. I like this method because once you set this method up for the day you do not have to make any changes to the angles through the day.

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Mini Dow

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Nov 18 2010

Forecast For The Gold mini

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Below are 20 minute charts for the mini gold, symbol YG. The last date on these charts is Nov 19, 2010. On these charts I have added the MarketWarrior indicator “Delta 4 Day (Short Term)”.  This post looks similar to the previous posting for the S&P500 mini contract because my custom Delta count for the mini Gold and the mini S&P500 both have 9 pivots and both have the #8 pivot in the same location. Using MarketWarrior you can develop your own custom Delta count. The count on these charts was developed by me for the intraday gold market and is the count that I am currently using in gold.

The #8 pivot in this Delta count has been a high probability pivot. The pivots 5, 6 and 7 have also done well recently but the #8 pivot has a historically higher accuracy. On the second chart I have shown the location of the next #8 pivot. This occurs Tuesday, Nov, 23, 2010. I will definitely be watching this date and time when this #8 pivot occurs.

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Mini Gold

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Mini Gold Forecast

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Nov 11 2010

S&P500 Bottom Forecast Using Aspects

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

My most accurate forecasting method for bottoms in the US stock indexes is the custom aspect between Jupiter and Saturn seen on the chart below. This is a daily chart for the S&P500. The next aspect occurs in Mid December 2010. I believe the US stock market will fall into this date and will make a bottom in Mid December.

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Aspect Forecast

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Nov 9 2010

Long Term Gold Chart

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Here is one of the long-term monthly charts for gold that I watch. The current uptrend in gold made its first top in 2006, the second top in 2008, the third top in 2009 and we are currently looking for the fourth top. This creates 3 upward swings after the 2006 top. The first one was +41.243% the second one was +18.619% and the current move is +16.137%. Notice that each upward swing has been smaller than the previous. The best case scenario for gold is to have the current upswing be larger than the previous swing of +18.619%. If the current upswing moves up +18.619% that will take the price up to $1457.076. I want to see gold move up above this price level. If the price moves above this price, it will be very positive because the price swings will be getting larger rather than getting smaller.

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Long Term Gold

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Nov 8 2010

Long Term Elliott Wave Count

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The US stock market is in a critical position with regard to the long-term wave count I have been following. The chart below shows the monthly chart for the DJIA30. The top (5) that occurred in 2000 just below the price 12000 was the long-term super cycle top. After this top the market has formed an irregular A-B-C pattern with the top at [B] in 2007 being higher than the (5). An irregular top occurs when the market does not decline during the A-B-C correction waves. The top [B] would normally be at or below the year 2000 top (5) but the fact that it went higher is also OK. This market is now forming the top of wave (1) in a new 1-2-3-4-5 wave sequence. This top at (1)should ideally be below the year 2000 top (5) at 12000. Then the following bottom at (2) should be at a price that represents a 50% or 61.8% correction of wave (1). I would like to see this market make a top below 12000 before the end of the year.

The reason I said at the start of this article that the US stock market is in a critical position with regard to this wave count is that the US stock market has an 80% historical probability of moving up in the 4th quarter between September and December during the Christmas season. If this historical pattern repeats this year, the wave (1) top will certainly be above the 12000 level and above the previous wave (5) top. This will mean the wave pattern will need to be reevaluated.

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Long Term Waves

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Nov 2 2010

Forecast For The S&P500 mini

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The two charts below show the mini S&P500, symbol ES. These are 20 minute charts. On these charts I have added the MarketWarrior indicator named “Delta 4 Day (Short Term)”. The Delta count on this chart is my custom delta count for the S&P500.  My custom delta counts for the short-term are modified several times a year as the market cycles change. This is the current short-term count for the S&P500 mini which has not been change for about 6 months. Using MarketWarrior you can develop your own custom Delta counts.

The pivot number 8 has been a high probability count recently in this count. On the second chart below I am showing the next #8 pivot position. This is Nov 23, 2010 at 10AM. I will be watching the S&P500 mini for a change in trend around this date and time.

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Mini S&P500

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Mini S&P500 Forecast

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