Monthly Archives: April 2010

Apr 30 2010

Finding Bottoms on the 1 Minute Chart Part 3 of 3

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Here is the third and final discussion of finding buying opportunities on the 1 minute chart. This discussion again uses the method seen in the previous two posts which applied the MarketWarrior indicators Smoothed Stochastic and Regression Line. The red line is the Regression Line and the blue line in the sub chart is the Smoothed Stochastic. The one minute chart moves very quickly and requires a method that is fairly reliable. The charts below show the 1 minute chart for April 28, 2010 for Yahoo, symbol YHOO.

I will describe the setup. We are looking at points A and B seen below. There are two things which indicate a buy signal. At point A you can see the price was below the red Regression Line and the blue Smoothed Stochastic was very low – almost at zero. We want to see the Smoothed Stochastic below 1.0. These two characteristic occurred at both points A and B and they signaled a buy opportunity.

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1 Minute Yahoo

On the chart below, point C shows the only other buy signal for April 28, 2010. At point C the price was well below the red Regression Line and the blue Smoothed Stochastic was below 1.0. This provided a good buying opportunity on the 1 minute Yahoo chart.

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More 1 Minute Yahoo

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Apr 28 2010

Finding Bottoms on the 1 Minute Chart Part 2 of 3

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The three charts below show 1 minute charts for Microsoft, symbol MSFT. I am going to discuss finding buying points on the one minute chart using the MarketWarrior indicators Smoothed Stochastic and Regression Line. This Smoothed Stochastic is the momentum indicator which I personally use the most. It has proved very useful in both choppy and trending markets.

To find a buying opportunity, we are looking for a setup that involves two items. First, the price should be below the Regression Line and the farther below the Regression Line the better. Second, we want to see the Smoothed Stochastic below 1.0. This setup identifies a good time to buy the 1 minute chart for a short-term trade.

On the chart below, situations A, B and D show where this buy setup occurred. At each of these points the Smoothed Stochastic was very low below 1.0,  the price was below the Regression Line. These three points located a good place to buy for a short-term upswing. This chart also includes point C. At point C no signal is given because the price is on the Regression Line. This is important because it is very easy to focus just on the Smoothed Stochastic.

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1 Minute MSFT

Points E and F are new on the chart below, while C and D are the same as on the previous chart. Point E provided a very good short-term buy opportunity.  At Point F the buy signal came a few bars before the swing bottom.
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More 1 Minute MSFT

The final chart below shows point G. This point also occurred a few minutes before a swing bottom just as point F had done.

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3rd 1 Minute Chart

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Apr 27 2010

Finding Bottoms on the 1 Minute Chart Part 1 of 3

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Here is a 1 minute chart for Apple Inc, symbol (AAPL).  When trading stocks most traders only want to buy long so in this blog I am going to show how to buy bottoms on the 1 minute chart using the MarketWarrior indicators named Smoothed Stochastic and Regression Line.

The red line in the main chart area is the Regression Line. The blue line in the sub chart is the Smoothed Stochastic. To find a good buy opportunity on the 1 minute chart we want to see the Smoothed Stochastic move down below 1.0 and as close to zero as possible. We also want to make sure the prices are not on top the Regression Line. The price should be below the Regression Line and the farther the better.

On the Chart below at letter A, the Smoothed Stochastic was below 1.0 and the price was below the Regression Line. This shows a good setup indicating a buy signal. At letter B the same setup has occurred. This shows another buy signal.

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1 Min Buy Signals

The letter B on the chart below is the same as seen on the previous chart. The letter C shows us a third buy signal. The Smoothed Stochastic was below 1.0 and the price was below the Regression Line. The situation at D is not a buy signal because the price was on the Regression Line when the Smoothed Stochastic first fell below 1.0. The price did fall below the Regression Line while the  Smoothed Stochastic was still below 1.0 but I would not consider this to be a buy signal.

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1 min Buy Signals

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Apr 26 2010

Support and Resistance Planet Lines for Mini Dow

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

This blog post is similar to the previous post in that we are going to set up the best planet lines for the coming week, April 26 to April 30. The way we do this is to find the best planet lines for the previous week and use them in the coming week. The chart below shows the 10 minute mini Dow (YM) futures contract for April 23 and 25.  I have found the best support and resistance planet lines for the previous week which were the Venus lines shown on the chart below.  You can see a few of the tops and bottoms that fell on these lines labeled A, B, C and D.

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Venus Planet Lines

The next chart shows the beginning of the week covering April 26 to April 30. These Venus lines should continue to provide support and resistance price levels for the coming week. This is again the 10 minute chart for mini Dow (YM).  I will show how these planet lines worked out in this market at the end of the week on April 30.

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Venus Planet Lines #2

Below are the settings for these lines in the MarketWarrior indicator “AT_Planet Lines” if you want to set this indicator up in your copy of MarketWarrior.

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Settings

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Apr 23 2010

Support and Resistance Planet Lines for Mini Silver

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

In this discussion we are looking for support and resistance planet lines for the mini silver (YI) futures contract. The chart below is a 15 minute chart for mini silver. I am looking for support and resistance planet lines for the week April 26 to April 30. To find these planet lines, I have found the best planet lines for the previous week. The chart below shows the 15 minute mini silver chart for April 21 and 22. The planet lines for Venus have been added to this chart. These planet lines provided the best support and resistance line in the previous week. You can see some of the tops and bottoms that fell on these lines labeled A, B, C and D.

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Planet Lines

The next chart shows the beginning of the week covering April 26 to April 30. These Venus lines should continue to provide support and resistance price levels for the coming week. This is again the 15 minute chart for mini Silver (YI).  I will show these lines at the end of this week on April 30.

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Planet Lines #2

Below are the settings for these lines in the MarketWarrior indicator “AT_Planet Lines” if you want to set this indicator up in your copy of MarketWarrior.

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Settings

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Apr 22 2010

Forecasting Coffee With the Mirror Cycle

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

This blog post will discuss another example of forecasting with the Mirror Cycle. This is a daily chart for coffee, symbol KC. On this chart I have added the MarketWarrior indicator named Mirror Cycle. The start of the Mirror Cycle is labeled on the chart. The Mirror Cycle turns labeled A to E correlate with the turns in the market. When using the Mirror Cycle to forecast, the Mirror Cycle must correlate with the market turns before the forecast can be made. The Mirror Cycle turns A to E allow us to forecast the next series of market turns.

The next point of interest is the bottom in the Mirror Cycle at #1. I expect a bottom at #1 in Late April, then a rally up to #2. The rally should last most of May.

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Mirror Cycle Forecast

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Apr 21 2010

Finding Bottoms With an ADX pattern

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

In this blog posting I will discuss the indicator ADX. There is a pattern in the ADX lines that can be used to help locate market bottoms. The chart below is a daily bar chart for cocoa futures, symbol CC.

The ADX pattern we are looking for involves two characteristics. First the ADX line is above the Trend Level. The higher the ADX is above the Trend Level the better. In the sub chart, the red line is the ADX. The two tops labeled A and B were the highest ADX tops in almost 9 months. These are very high ADX tops for the ADX indicator.

The second characteristic for this pattern is that the DI- line must be above the DI+ line. The higher the DI- line the better, and we would like to see the DI- line above the Trend Level. When the ADX line starts to make a top with this setup, it indicates the price is making a bottom. Both of the tops, A and B in the ADX, were indications the cocoa market was making a bottom. The bottom at A was only short-lived but the bottom at B is proving to be a significant bottom.

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ADX Pattern

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Apr 20 2010

Forecasting Japanese Yen with the Mirror Cycle

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Here is a daily chart for the Japanese Yen futures contract. The data comes from Barchart.com using the electronic futures contract symbol J6. On this chart I have added the MarketWarrior indicator named Mirror Cycle. The start of the Mirror Cycle is labeled on this chart. The Mirror Cycle turns labeled A, B, C, D and E correlate with the turns in the market. When using the Mirror Cycle to forecast, the Mirror Cycle must correlate with the market turn before the forecast can be made. The Mirror Cycle turns A, B, C, D and E allow us to forecast the next series of market turns.

The next point of interest is the top in the Mirror Cycle at 1. I expect a top at 1 then a decline to 2. This swing forecast from #1 to #2 will take the Japanese Yen down to a bottom in June 2010.

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Mirror Cycle

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Apr 19 2010

Finding Buy Points with the Moving Average Oscillator

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The chart below shows a daily chart for Amazon.com, symbol AMZN. On this chart I have added the MarketWarrior indicator “Moving Average Oscillator” (MAO). This indicator can identify a high probability signal to enter an existing up trend. On the chart below this indicator is giving one buy signal for Amazon.com.

When a market is making a strong uptrend, the MAO will make a trough bottom above zero. I have labeled this A. When the MAO makes a trough above zero you should look for an opportunity to buy the market because the uptrend is very strong. When this pattern appears, the market has a high probability of continuing the uptrend.

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Moving Average Oscillator

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Apr 16 2010

Planet Line Fan and Over Under Pattern and EBAY

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Here is a weekly chart example of the Over Under pattern. The pattern uses the red Sun 1×1 line. The price step is 0.05 (5 cents) per 1 longitude degree. The chart below shows ebay, symbol EBAY. The letters A, B and C mark the important points in the Over Under pattern. The lines are drawn up from a swing bottom. The price must stay above the planet line for a period of time. In this example the price stayed above the Sun’s 1×1 line until the top at point A.
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After point A the price fell below the Sun’s 1×1 line at point B. The final part of the pattern occurs when the price rallies back up to the planet line at point C. Once the price reaches the planet line at point C, the pattern in complete and we expect the market to turn and decline. After point C is where we look for an opportunity to sell short.

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Planet Lines and Ebay

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