Monthly Archives: January 2010

Jan 31 2010

Euro FX Forecast With the Mirror Cycle

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Here is a daily chart for the Euro FX futures contract. The data comes from Barchart.com using the electronic futures contract symbol E6. On this chart I have added the MarketWarrior indicator named Mirror Cycle. The start of the Mirror Cycle is labeled on this chart. The Mirror Cycle turns labeled A, B, C and D correlate with the turns in the market. The next point of interest is the bottom in the Mirror Cycle at E. I expect a bottom at E then a rally to F and finally a decline to G. This swing forecast will take the Euro FX out to mid March 2010.

Euro FX forecast

Euro FX forecast

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Jan 30 2010

Canadian Dollar Forecast with the Mirror Cycle

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The graph in this blog shows the daily chart for Canadian Dollar futures. I am using the electronic futures contract symbol D6. The data source is Barchart.com.  On this chart I have added the MarketWarrior indicator named Mirror Cycle. The start of the Mirror Cycle is labeled on this chart. The Mirror Cycle turns labeled A and B correlate with the turned in the market. Currently we are watching the Canadian Dollar for the bottom at pivot C and then a top at D and finally a decline to the bottom at E. This set of swings will take the Canadian Dollar through February 2010.

Canadian Dollar Forecast

Canadian Dollar Forecast

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Jan 26 2010

Moon Phase and Soybean Oil

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Here is another example showing how to use the moon phase and momentum. In this example I will use the soybean oil chart below to show how to use momentum divergence and the moon phase. The picture below show the daily soybean oil chart with the MarketWarrior momentum indicator “Stochastic of RSI” in the sub-graph. The full moon is shown as blue dots.

When using this method, we are looking for two tops to occur with a full moon on both tops. The second top should be higher than the first top. We want to see the momentum indicator form two corresponding tops but the second momentum top should be lower. On the picture below, these tops are labeled A and B. The second top B is higher in the price data and is lower in the momentum indicator. This divergence between the second tops indicates the market is making a blow off top and a decline should follow. The fact that the full moon has occurred at the same time creates the setup we are looking for. Now we expect a decline after top B.

soybean oil

soybean oil

The next chart is a continuation of the soybean oil chart above. This chart shows a second setup using this method. Again a decline occurred after top B.

soybean oil 2
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Jan 25 2010

Moon Phase and Silver

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

In this post I am going to discuss an old method and show that it is still working. This method combines the moon phase and a momentum indicator. Below is a daily silver chart. I have added the full moons to this chart which are blue dots and I have added a momentum indicator in the sub-graph. Here I am using the MarketWarrior “Stochastic of RSI” indicator which is one of my favorite momentum indicators for the daily chart.

This method involves watching for the momentum indicator to fall below the lower boundary, the closer to zero the better, while a full moon is occurring. We are also watching for the momentum indicator to rise above the upper boundary, the closer to 100 the better, while a full moon is occurring. On this silver chart I have labeled four situations that meet this criteria. They are labeled A, B, C and D. The A, B and D mark setups where the Stochastic of RSI is below the lower boundary and a full moon occurred. After this setup, a rally occurred. For point D the rally is just starting at the time of this writing. The letter C marks a setup where the Stochastic of RSI is above the upper boundary and a full moon occurred. After this setup the silver market fell. These types of setups occur over and over.

Silver

Silver

End

Jan 23 2010

Mini Silver 20-Minute Chart Forecast

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The first picture below shows a 20 minute chart for mini silver futures, symbol YI. On this chart I have added my Short Term Delta (STD) count. The STD counts are the most difficult to work out and are also in a constant state of flux. My STD for a market like silver will be adjusted every few weeks. The picture below shows my current STD count for silver is just past pivot #6 and is falling to pivot #7. For the trading day Friday January 22, 2010, I expect the silver market to fall to pivot #7 and then rally to pivot #8. This means I expect there to be two major pivots on the 20 minute chart in silver on January 22. One pivot in the middle of the day and one towards the end of the day.

The second picture below shows how this forecast worked out. The silver market fell into my STD pivot #7 and then moved sideways to the end of the trading day. In my current STD for silver, the pivots #5 and #7 are the most accurate pivots for finding turning points. I do not try to trade every pivot in my STD counts because working out the STD counts is difficult. Instead I try to focus on trading only the most reliable pivots.

Silver Forecast Chart 1

Silver Forecast Chart 1

Silver Forecast Chart 2

Silver Forecast Chart 2

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Jan 22 2010

Mini Dow 20-Minute Chart Forecast

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Here is a discussion of a forecast for Friday January 22, 2010 for the mini dow, symbol YM. This is the 5 dollar per point mini dow. The first picture below shows a 20 minute chart for the mini dow. This chart shows my Short Term Delta (STD) count. The current market position is between the pivot #4 and #5. During the day on January 22, I expect the market to fall to my STD pivot #5. The next pivot after #5 in my STD count does not fall on January 22 so I do not have an expectation about what will happen after pivot #5.

The second picture below shows what happened on Friday January 22. The market had a down day and fell most of the day into pivot #5. The trading then ended for the day. The STD is the most difficult of any of the Delta counts to work out. I do not consider any of my STD counts to be permanent counts. I am adjusting them on an on-going basis. I usually change them every few weeks.

Mini Dow Forecast Chart 1

Mini Dow Forecast Chart 1

Mini Dow Forecast Chart 2

Mini Dow Forecast Chart 2

End

Jan 21 2010

Mini Gold 20-Minute Chart Forecast

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The first picture below shows a 20 minute chart for the mini gold futures contract symbol YG. On this chart I have added my Short Term Delta (STD). The STD counts are the most difficult to develop and I change my STD counts every several weeks. The first chart below shows my current STD forecasting the trading day for Friday January 22, 2010. On this day my STD shows two major pivots which are #5 and #6, Based on the previous day’s price action I am expecting the mini gold market to fall into pivot #5 a and then rally into pivot #6.

On the second picture below, I show how January 22 actually worked out. You can see the mini gold market did fall into my STD #5 pivot and then rallied to the end of the trading day which was close to my STD #6. In every STD count, there are some pivots that are more reliable than others. In my STD count for mini gold, the #5 pivot is one of the more reliable pivots right now. To use the STD I believe you must adjust the count every several weeks.

Gold Forecast Chart 1

Gold Forecast Chart 1

Gold Forecast Chart 2

Gold Forecast Chart 2

End

Jan 20 2010

McDonald’s Weekly Chart Forecast

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The picture below shows the weekly chart for McDonald’s. On this chart I have added my Medium Tern Delta (MTD) count. My MTD count for McDonald’s has six pivots. The #1 pivot appears just before the orange line and has just recently occurred.  My MTD pattern indicates that the next sequence of pivots McDonald’s should work through are: a decline down to #2 in early April, a rally to #3 in late May then a decline to #4 in July.

McDonald's Weekly Chart Forecast

McDonald's Weekly Chart Forecast

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Jan 19 2010

Biogen Weekly Chart Forecast

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

The chart below shows the weekly chart for Biogen Idec Inc. symbol BIIB. On this chart I have added my Medium Term Delta (MTD) count that I worked out for this stock. My MTD count for Biogen has 5 pivots. The current market position has just made the #2 pivot. The next six months for Biogen should see this market move down to pivot #3, then up to #4 and finally down to pivot #5. The high and low prices for these pivots may be different from what is shown on this chart because the MTD is forecasting the time of the pivot not the price.

Biogen Weekly Chart Forecast
Biogen Weekly Chart Forecast

End

Jan 18 2010

Apple Inc. Weekly Chart Forecast

Written by:
Patrick Mikula CTA
Mikula Forecasting Company
www.MikulaForecasting.com
support@MikulaForecasting.com
Copyright © 2010 by Patrick Mikula All Rights Reserved

Here is an example that shows my Medium Term Delta (MTD) count for Apple computer. This is a weekly chart for Apple Inc. symbol AAPL. The start of a new MTD cycle occurs at count #1 and this is occurring right now. My MTD count has 5 pivots and the #1 is after the orange line. Based on my count, the price for Apple should fall to pivot #2 in early April and the should rally to #3 in July and then should fall to #4 in September. When using the weekly chart and the MTD there will often be small zig-zag waves between the major count values 2, 3 and 4. Also, this MTD identifies the relative time of the pivots but the prices may be higher or lower.

Weekly Chart Apple Forecast
Weekly Chart Apple Forecast

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